A lot of having a profitable betting/DFS season last year for me was learning when not to play. Early on, there would be slates or games where I had strong feelings, but had not done the requisite level of research for a full 5 game slate in DFS or my model told me to bet the opposite way of my head. Usually, I would just play anyway and go with my gut. That was predictably a disaster. It’s hard to avoid playing when you love it. So this year, I am trying out a new platform Thrive Fantasy .
Thrive Fantasy has a new way to play DFS in which players select from a set of Player Props that have different point values assigned to them. The players who get the most points from their props win a share of the guaranteed prize pools. It’s perfect for when you don’t want to do hours and hours of research and want to form an opinion on a few key props. If that sounds good to you, come join me on Thrive Fantasy, and use code LCSPICKS to get up to a $50 match.
As far as winning in the LEC and LCS, I’ve got you covered:
LEC Lock: G2 Caps Over 2.5 Kills vs. Mad Lions (90 Points)
I would expect this to be by far the most popular play on the slate, but it’s for good reason. Caps didn’t hit 3 kills in only 9 of his 35 matchups in the LEC last split, which included 11 losses. I do not expect G2 to have 11 losses this season and expect them to start off with a bang. They are the perfect kind of team for a huge season: they have a lot of continuity, but are also reinvigorated by a big offseason move. His lane opponent, Humanoid, is also an explosive kind of player who will take a lot of lane 1v1s and never stop fighting even from behind. It’s an ideal matchup for lots of kills for Caps. Just take the free 90 points here and look for other places to get different.
LEC Value: Humanoid Over 5.5 deaths vs. G2 (110 points)
I am going with a little correlation angle here. If Caps is going to pop off, Humanoid is going to die a lot. These two plays have a lot to do with how I feel about this game in general. I think G2 is going to stomp. Mad Lions has 2 new members to fit in and get acclimated and are coming up against G2 who has the same mid-jungle-support core and simply added the best ADC in the history of the LEC. Thrive has a perfect way for us to get some skin in this game without having to simply bet on a huge favorite.
LCS Lock: Blaber Over 1.5 Kills (90 points)
Here’s another easy one that everyone’s going to be clicking right away, but I’m bringing it up here because I think it’s key to strategy on Thrive. Don’t get too cute. There’s only 10 options and the contests are currently pretty small. You will be able to get different enough by choosing one or two value options. I will not be trying to fade the obvious plays. 90 points is like 60ish% implied odds of happening. Blaber gets 2 or more kills in way more than 60% of outcomes for this Dig-C9 game. C9 is a huge favorite. Blaber is central to their kills and map play. Jungle champions favor kills for junglers right now. Take the free points.
LCS Value: Aphromoo Over 4.5 Deaths (110 Points)
Supports are dying right now. Anyone who has played LoL DFS this season knows this. The strong champion pool for supports right now includes Leona, Alistar, Thresh, etc. All champions that put their bodies in between their teammates and the other team and are usually the first to die in a team fight. I actually think Aphromoo dying 5 times is slightly favored in this matchup, but this is priced as if it’s the underdog. Points-to-value wise this is my favorite play on either slate.
I will be trying out a few of the cash head to heads for this slate and will be playing these plays. If you think you can beat me, come join Thrive and use code LCSPICKS for your deposit match.
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