Above is my finals futures positions for the tournament including my adds from today on JDG and G2. I’m not sure what made the books go sour on JDG in the group stage, but I still think they deserve to be much closer to a co-favorite with Top and Damwon. So, I spent this morning trying to figure out how I’m going to approach the remainder of the way.
Profitable scenarios
The Nuts, Gen. G wins
Gen.G wins against TES/FNC/Suning
46.5u win – 10u loss= 36.5 u win
Gen.G wins against JDG
53.7u win – 7u loss= 46.7u win
G2 wins
G2 wins against Suning, TES, or Fnatic
19.5u win – 11u loss = 8.5u win
G2 wins against JDG
22.7- 9u loss= 13.7u win
JDG Wins
JDG wins against DWG or DRX
28.2u win – 7u loss= 21.2u win
JDG wins against G2
35.7 win- 6u loss= 29.7u win
JDG wins against Gen. G
34.7win-6u loss= 28.7u win
DWG Wins
DWG wins against JDG
15.2u win- 5u loss= 10.2u win
All other winners without hedging
Losses ranging from 1u to 13u
If there is any type of reasonable situation on Damwon against G2 or Gen.G, I will certainly be hedging there. I will also probably hedge a little bit with Top against JDG provided that is the matchup. Either way, it’s going to be a fun end to the tournament with some real sweaty sweats as all my futures besides the baby staked TSM one are still live.
With that out of the way, let’s get into the first quarterfinal:
Damwon vs. DRX
Top- DWG Nuguri vs. DRX Doran The Edge:DWG
Jungle- DWG Canyon vs. DRX Pyosik The Edge:DWG
Mid- DWG Showmaker vs. DRX Chovy The Edge: Even
Bot- DWG Ghost and Beryl vs. DRX Deft and Keria The Edge: DWG
Here’s a link to highlights of the last time these two teams played. That turned out to be a 3-0 sweep in favor of Damwon Gaming in which DRX only put up a real fight in one game. Here’s what’s particularly concerning to me about this video: DRX just looks outclassed all the way around. Even when they are able to contest Damwon off of their patented early leads, Damwon comes back by clawing back experience and gold in the lanes and outplaying objective fights. You can see the hopelessness settle in with DRX in Game 3.
A lot of the time, I find betting on sweeps to be overrated. It is very hard to beat a team 3 times in a row (or in this case 6 times in a row). With that said, I’m doing it here for a few reasons: First, Damwon is ridiculous. I have said it a thousand times, but they have the statistical indicators of every World Champion plus some. For a team to outspend their opponent’s gold by 15% on average in a league as strong as the LCK is just unprecedented. Second, you can see when certain teams have mental barriers to beating the best. We’ve seen it when push comes to shove with Fnatic and G2, we’ve seen it with Flyquest against everyone, and I have a feeling we’ll see it here too. Every strength of DRX you can argue that Damwon is better at. Previously, one could have argued what happens if they make it into the late game at an even state where DRX has excelled and we just haven’t really seen what Damwon can do, but that happened in Game 2 of their series and Damwon still won.
We saw DRX do similar things in their games against Top Esports as well. Both games, but particularly game 2, DRX was able to hold up in the early game and match Top Esports in lanes, but when it came to clutch moments they were just the worse team and could not win. A lot of people will chalk that up to variance, I don’t. They are measurably worse at teamfight execution than the best teams in the world.
If this was a matchup of teams from two different regions with limited familiarity with one another, I’d be on the dog no matter what, but here I just don’t see it with DRX. Damwon has their number and will sweep again. I’ll fire on the -2.5 and then will be betting the -6.5 kills for DWG on every map it’s available to me.
The Picks: DWG -2.5 Maps (+137) 1u, DWG -6.5 kills (-115) 1u each
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