6/21-6/25/2020: Recap
Felt pretty close to a winning week with a couple of big, juiced favorites throwing games in both LPL and LCK, but that’s a part of the game. Got to be honest when you’re losing and honest when you’re winning, right now I’m losing in LoL and winning in soccer.
Soccer
Sevilla vs. Valladolid Under 2, 2.5 (Even) 1u
Sevilla has not exactly set the world on fire at home this season with 21 goals. That number is 10th in the league despite Sevilla’s standing at 4th in points. They are one of the rare teams that might be offensively better on the road. Defensively, they have the 3rd best XGa in the league at home and rarely concede. Valladolid is the second worst road scoring team in the league. If this game is going over, Sevilla will have to score 3. I don’t see it.
Juventus Team Total Over 2.5 Goals vs. Lecce (-160) 1u
This is another stats mismatch. Juventus is the best expected goal differential/90 team in Serie A. Lecce is the worst. Juventus has also yet to really start clicking offensively since coming back from the covid break. I like them to get that right against the team with the highest Xga in the league and score at least 3 goals.
LPL
Rogue Warriors +1.5 Games vs. Team WE (-105) 1u
Rogue Warriors were 3 game underdog kings last split taking games off the likes of Top Esports and FPX. Their aggressive style was usually good for one upset. Cut to this split where Rogue Warriors have yet to win a single game of League of Legends. Something’s not right with this picture. It could be that they were completely figured out, butI’m leaning more towards Rogue Warriors getting some positive regression this week and taking a couple games off of superior teams. They have been completely awful in every game they played and I can’t quite let go of my favorite dogs from last split.
EDG +1.5 Games (+120) vs. TES 1u, EDG ML (+295) 0.5u
I don’t think TES has looked fantastic so far outside of the JDG series, which is scary because they have won every game outside of 1. They are that talented of a team. There has been some tendency to limit test against teams that they are clearly better than. They are clearly better than EDG. The difference being, with EDG compared to a BilliBIlli or Rogue Warriors, is that EDG will generally close leads. (Not always I know, believe me) If TOP do something silly against EDG like they have against the other middle teams, EDG could steal a game even without Hope who has been helped by Meiko’s stellar play so far this season.
LCK
Team Dynamics ML (-170) 2u vs. HLE, Team Dynamics -1.5 Games (+175) 1u
I think we have enough data to say this team is legit. They are sporting an unspectacular but very solid +2.4% GSPD so far this split. In the early game, in particular, this team looks headed to the playoffs. I think Hanwa has a chance to be the worst team in the league and their stats back it up so far this split. Hanwa has given up a 2k gold lead at 15 minutes on average in the summer. I think Team Dynamics could get out early on this team and close them out twice in a row.
LEC
Schalke 04 vs. Excel Esports Under 20.5 Kills (-115) 1u
Last week, I retired from betting on all of Schalke’s teams. So, when I saw that they were a dog against what has looked like the worst team in the league so far I was a little tempted, but held off. Instead let’s play the under between these two teams. Both teams have gone under in 4 out of their first 5 matchups and have gone under 20.5 in 4 of 5 and 3 of 5 respectively. Schalke, in particular, likes to play a slow, scaling style that usually hinges on one or two late game team fights that end the game. This kind of style leans towards the under.
Misfits -5.5 Kills vs. Vitality (-110) 1u
Misfits are in a near must win situation here. If they fall to 2-4 here with games against MAD, G2, and SK still to come in this half of the round robin, they will be in legitimate playoff danger. If you want to make the playoffs in the LEC, you have to beat Vitality. Misfits have been especially weak in the early game with a -1k Gold Differential at 15. Luckily for them, Vitality is no early game monster either with a negative GD@15 of their own. This just feels like a get right spot for Misfits and it’s rare that a team wins in Europe without covering -5.5
FNATIC -5.5 Kills vs. Rogue (-115) 1u, Rogue-FNATIC Under 21.5 Kills (-115) 1u
FNC in another “get right” spot here after an 0-2 weekend last week. We don’t need to tell you how good Fnatic are. They tried out some new picks and compositions last weekend and failed to execute on them. I would not count on that happening three times in a row to this team. Rogue is having a great split too, but FNC is not a good matchup for them. Rogue likes to play standard, solid LoL. FNC likes to play flexible, aggressive LoL. I want to see what happens when Finn or Larssen get behind early on like I expect them to do this weekend. My guess is they play cautiously and lose slowly, hence the under.
MAD vs. Origen Over 20.5 Kills (-115) 1u
Origen has not played exclusively like “borigen” this season. In their matchup against G2 particularly, they had an aggressive plan to meet G2 where they are at. MAD play like G2 lite and are the highest kill total team in the league. If Origen come in with the same plan to meet MAD’s aggression with aggression, I expect this kill total to go way over.
LCS
Team Liquid ML vs. C9 (+250) 1u
+250 is just too big of a number for the second best team in LCS against the best team in LCS for a best of 1 right? C9 draft an early game composition in every single game they play and then just massively outplay their opponents in every position on the map. What if they can’t massively outplay one time? What happens if a team can make it to a late game against them? If there’s a team in the LCS that can do that, it’s Liquid. Outside of their loss to EG, Liquid has been solid in the early game and has been their usual monsters in late game teamfights. Do I think it’s the most likely situation that Liquid survives and wins late? Probably not. Is it more likely than the 28% implied odds of the moneyline? Absolutely.
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