Group A Recap: 2-3 for -2.875u
Last night was a reminder that in sports betting and sports, you can make solid, analytical, data-driven decisions over a long period of time and can hope that brings long term success. A random Thursday Morning in May though? T1 can decide to play like they’ve never played before and take a dump on everything you thought about the way a tournament will go. That’s the rush. The unexpected is why we and they play.
A few thoughts before getting into Group B:
- Fading T1 for the futures bets was the right move for all the wrong reasons. I thought T1 would get run over in the early game, not throw multiple mid and late game team fights and Barons. We’ll take it though. If IG don’t get out of groups tomorrow, we’ve got profit locked up on the futures.
- The assumption about the teams playing to win, but loose, held fairly true. No one, besides T1, did anything totally out of character. Sure, Top Esports made some wild TPs and disrespectful attempts at outplays, but that’s nothing new for them.
- Speaking of outplays: holy shit Knight. Nothing more to say.
- FPX is still one of the best teams in the world. They did some weird stuff this split, but when the games matter, they’re going to be there.
Rankings For Group B:
- JDG
- Dragonx
- Invictus Gaming
- Gen.G
More reasoning on these rankings here. Now into the picks.
The LPL Champs are getting out of Groups bets: JDG ML vs. Gen.G (-170) 1u, JDG ML vs. IG (-160) 1u, JDG ML vs. DragonX (-190)
LoL has gone to the youngsters. Last year, FPX won worlds with a roster with a grand total of 0 international games under their belt.JDG have a roster of young studs ready to prove themselves on the international stage after previously falling short. I think they will be the most motivated team at the tournament. Intangibles aside, I have them modeled to win each of these games at better than the implied odds of each ML. However, as previously discussed and seen, crazy shit happens in best of 1s. JDG could lose one tomorrow. Will they lose more than one? I highly doubt it. We profit a little if JDG wins 2 out of 3 and big if they win 3 out of 3. Count me in on the team that swept Fun Plus Phoenix.
DragonX are underrated bets: DragonX ML vs. Gen.G (+100) 1u (Twitter POTD), DragonX ML vs. IG (+100) 1u
Full Disclosure: I bet these at better numbers earlier in the week. I still like them here. I’m not sure what made DragonX putting up a legitimate fight against T1 less valuable than Gen.G’s shitshow against T1, but take it. DragonX were the statistical best team in the LCK this year. I’m of the opinion DragonX were the best team in the LCK full stop, T1 just showed up better in the playoffs. Yesterday showed us that teams with big boy carries doing big boy carry things are getting out of groups. Chovy is a big boy carry. That makes the 50% implied odds against Gen. G easy money in my opinion. The IG game is a bit closer to a legitimate tossup. IG matchup well with DragonX on the top side of the map. The other side of the map is where DragonX will get their advantage. We saw lots of new picks being used in Group A in the bot lane. Deft has a bot lane champion ocean, rather than a pool. If Syndra and Yasuo become the bot lane carries of the tournament, who do you want to bet on: Deft or Puff? Give me DragonX.
Other Leans:
1. Lean towards JDG to cover Kill Spreads. JDG have a high Average Margin of Victory and typically win by 5 or more kills. Having them at -4.5 and -5.5 in their games is something to keep an eye on.
2. Lean towards the under across the board. Unders went 4-2 yesterday, which makes sense in a group stage where everything’s a bit tighter. It feels like group stages typically go this way, but would require some serious labor to find out if that feeling is based in fact.
3. Lean towards IG ML vs Gen. G. TheShy will get off in one of these games. My guess is it’s against Rascal.
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